German tank problem
In the statistical theory of estimation, the German tank problem involves estimating the maximum of a discrete uniform distribution from sampling without replacement, due to its application in World War II to the estimation of the number of German tanks.
Description
The Allies attempted to estimate the number of tanks being produced. To do this, they used the serial numbers on captured or destroyed tanks.
The statistical approach proved to be far more accurate than conventional intelligence methods, and the phrase "German tank problem" became accepted as a descriptor for this type of statistical analysis.
This analysis shows the approach that was used and illustrates the difference between frequentist inference and Bayesian inference.
Estimating the population maximum based on a single sample yields divergent results, while the estimation based on multiple samples is an instructive practical estimation question whose answer is simple but not obvious.
See also
External links
- German tank problem @ Wikipedia
